The Russian project of the Caspian Economic Cooperation Organization (CECO) meets for the present a cautious attitude of other countries in the region. At least, it is extremely difficult at the moment to join in this project all five states of Caspian region. There is only one solution - to create the organization with those states that are ready to it. The others will join in later.

On April 15 in Baku was held an international conference entitled «Russia-Azerbaijan: through increase of inter-regional cooperation to strengthening of the strategic partnership». On both sides the conference had a fairly high representation. In addition to political leaders the conference was also attended by representatives of economic ministries and agencies, businessmen.

In this case, this conference is interesting because during it, besides bilateral issues was also discussed the possible creation of CECO. Moreover, this issue was included in the final statement of participants of the conference. Most likely, it was done on the Russian initiative. But it is unlikely that Azerbaijan party would sign the statement, if they were categorically against this idea.

The idea of CECO appeared year and a half ago, and in particular, was announced by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. But as long as its practical implementation is quite slow. The reasons are simple - there is no agreement on a big number of issues between five Caspian littoral states (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Turkmenistan).

One of the main problems is the lack of a definitive agreement on the division of the Caspian Sea’s surface. Specifically, the matter is about the southern part, as in the northern Caspian an agreement is actually reached between Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. In the south, the same dispute between Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan is still far from complete solution. And this problem thereby leads to a whole heap of other differences in the economic development of water areas, safety, environment, and ultimately to political differences.

As a result, the inability of the Caspian countries to agree among themselves raises the very real limits for projects of the more systematic and mutually beneficial cooperation in the region. The resource and logistic potential of the Caspian Sea, ideally, provides an opportunity to make this region one of the most attractive and very significant development centers. Revenues from oil and gas transportation, as well as from the development of transit corridors could be invested in infrastructure of the region, thereby providing a potential for prosperity in the future on a new technological level, not centered only on the extraction and export of resources. But all this possibilities would remain unrealized without real integration efforts of all region states.

Moreover, the differences between littoral states provide an excellent opportunity to all sorts of extra-regional Players to «fish in troubled waters» and they are successful, setting the littoral states at loggerheads. The more confusion and chaos will be on the Caspian Sea, the easier it would be to them to solve their own problems and to justify the growth of their presence here. And the quantity as it is well-known, sooner or later can turn into quality.

It may sound harsh, but it seems quite clear that if the Caspian «five» will not be able to solve the problem of peaceful and mutually beneficial development of the Caspian Sea for the benefit of all peoples living there, then, taking advantage of existent differences, the extra-regional Players will do it. And they will do it, as it would be beneficial to them.

That is why, from my point of view, we can’t defer the start of the project CECO. The future might not forgive it to us. Unfortunately, the waiting until all the states in the region will resolve all their differences and come to an understanding of the benefits of integration could take a very long time. But the historical time limit isn’t infinite.

In this situation it seems rational to begin the work on the creation of CECO themselves and involve those states who really want to cooperate. It is possible that such a step would be unprecedented. But then why couldn’t we create it?

CECO can begin its work at the level of independent experts, then attracting independent economic actors, and then the public authorities. Otherwise, we can’t obtain this five-party agreement for ever.

Concerning the key partners to date we can talk about Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. It is easy to cooperate with them in everything: from the expert community till the public authorities. In reality, the Caspian post-Soviet «Troika» - Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan - have de-facto formed in a certain community because of their agreement on the division of waters and resources of the Caspian Sea. The most successful examples of interstate cooperation in the Caspian region and in other areas also confined to the three above mentioned states.

The creation of the real organization (CECO) from this de-facto existing cooperation is the main goal of the next phase of this project.

Of course, we should not exaggerate the degree of interaction and mutual understanding within the «Troika». But the first step is always the hardest. At least, against the background of the cooperation between Iran and Turkmenistan, the situation inside trio looks quite optimistic.

Concerning Tehran and Ashgabat, their claim to separateness may eventually turn against them. The entering into a major regional organization would be for Tehran's a very serious factor in strengthening its position in the context of permanent conflict with the USA and its closest allies.

With regard to Ashgabat, it is also worthwhile to the Turkmen leadership to look beyond the next few years. Turkmenistan increasingly attracts the attention of external forces. Could he keep the situation under control in the future is a big question.

No one thinks that this road would be simple. It appears, however, that the objective necessity and benefit of such format like CECO, is undeniable. Such an organization is vital to all the peoples inhabiting the shores of the Caspian Sea and the Caspian Sea itself, as a natural phenomenon. Such cooperation is particularly important in terms of geopolitical instability and economic crisis that we are observing now. In the difficult external environment it is much easier to solve regional problems all together. Only subjective considerations which have nothing in common with the true interests of the countries of the Caspian Five and the inability to understand the need for a common response to the strategic challenges in the Caspian region of our time could hinder the realization of idea of CECO.